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مقالات با بیشترین کلیدواژگان هلال احمر

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  • Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor,index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling-Narayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya

    Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling–Narayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya BACKGROUND: Landslide susceptibility maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous country like Nepal. METHODS: In the present study, landslide susceptibility assessment of Mugling–Narayanghat road and its surrounding area is made using bivariate (certainty factor and index of entropy) and multivariate (logistic regression) models. At first, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports and aerial photographs as well as by carrying out field survey. RESULTS: As a result, 321 landslides were mapped and out of which 241 (75 %) were randomly selected for building landslide susceptibility models, while the remaining 80 (25 %) were used for validating the models. The effectiveness of landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. In this case study, the following landslide conditioning factors were evaluated: slope gradient; slope aspect; altitude; plan curvature; lithology; land use; distance from faults, rivers and roads; topographic wetness index; stream power index; and sediment transport index. These factors were prepared from topographic map, drainage map, road map, and the geological map. CONCLUSIONS: Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was carried out using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC plot estimation results showed that the susceptibility map using index of entropy model with AUC value of 0.9016 has highest prediction accuracy of 90.16 %. Similarly, the susceptibility maps produced using logistic regression model and certainty factor model showed 86.29 and 83.57 % of prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, the ROC plot showed that the success rate of all the three models performed more than 80 % accuracy (i.e. 89.15 % for IOE model, 89.10 % for LR model and 87.21 % for CF model). Hence, it is concluded that all the models employed in this study showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility of Mugling–Narayanghat road section. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.

  • Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-,middle-,and high-income countries

    Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Abstract BACKGROUND: More than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown. METHODS: We enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years. RESULTS: The mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

  • Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses

    Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses Background In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Methods Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic status than in those with high socioeconomic status; the social gradient also depends on the country's stage of economic development, cultural factors, and social and health policies. Social inequalities in risk factors account for more than half of inequalities in major NCDs, especially for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Findings People in low-income countries and those with low socioeconomic status also have worse access to health care for timely diagnosis and treatment of NCDs than do those in high-income countries or those with higher socioeconomic status. Reduction of NCDs in disadvantaged groups is necessary to achieve substantial decreases in the total NCD burden, making them mutually reinforcing priorities. Interpretation Effective actions to reduce NCD inequalities include equitable early childhood development programmes and education; removal of barriers to secure employment in disadvantaged groups; comprehensive strategies for tobacco and alcohol control and for dietary salt reduction that target low socioeconomic status groups; universal, financially and physically accessible, high-quality primary care for delivery of preventive interventions and for early detection and treatment of NCDs; and universal insurance and other mechanisms to remove financial barriers to health care.

  • A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions,1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Background Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. Findings In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and household air pollution from solid fuels (4·3% [3·4–5·3]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 6·8% [5·5–8·0]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, Andean Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, most of Latin America, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Interpretation Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Global,regional,and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death,1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Plants antioxidants: From laboratory to clinic

    Plants antioxidants: From laboratory to clinic. Abstract Implication for health policy/practice/research/medical education: Eating whole vegetables, fruits and grains, which all are rich in antioxidants, provides protection against most of oxidative stress induced diseases, however, this does not mean that antioxidants will prevent or fix the problem, especially not when they are taken out of their natural context. It should be noted that although the results of the studies are inconclusive, but most of the studies conducted till now have had limitations due to their relatively short duration and conducting on patients with existing diseases.

  • Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Background Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. Methods We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. Findings 13 902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16 328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. Interpretation This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Hydrogenation of CO2 to value-added products-A review and potential future developments

    Hydrogenation of CO2 to value-added products - A review and potential future developments Abstract BACKGROUND: Fossil fuel depletion, global warming, climate change, and steep hikes in the price of fuels are driving scientists to investigate on commercial and environmentally friendly fuels. METHODS: The process of CO2 conversion to value-added products has been considered as a possible remedy to fulfill the requirements. The present review paper comprehensively discusses two different processes, namely hydrocarbon and methanol synthesis which are extensively used to convert CO2 to value-added products. RESULTS: Reaction mechanisms as well as the effects of catalyst, reactor type and operating conditions on product efficiency enhancement of each process are reviewed. Furthermore a brief overview on the reactor types as the most effective component of the theoretical and experimental reported results on the process improvement is given. CONCLUSIONS: All the information is tabulated in order to make the gathered information easily conclusive. Finally, by taking the available information into account the best reactor configuration which is adjustable to reaction mechanism is proposed.

  • Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions,1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Background Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. Methods We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Findings Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Interpretation Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

تازه ترین مقالات

  • The role of Foresight in avoiding systematic failure of natural disaster risk management

    Foresight practices have recently grown in all fields of science.Moreover,studies in which the enormous need have existed to design desired futures in natural disaster management have increased as well.In this paper,the authors try to elaborate the relations between ‘disaster management’,‘risk management’,and ‘disaster risk management’ in Foresight philosophies and fundamental concepts.In this regard,different information has been gathered and analyzed.These include literature review in disaster management,Foresight,and related fields,as well as evidences of Foresight and disaster risk management projects.In addition,global statistical data related to natural disasters have been analyzed.Reviewing global trends of natural disasters reveal that disaster impacts are dramatically increasing.The uncertainties associated with future disasters have grown too.This will certainly surprise decision-makers in future disasters.Furthermore,the key stakeholders,who could apply the Foresight methods in managing natural disasters,are national and international policy-makers.They will have faced with a systematic failure in case of inability to follow a reliable long-term planning.To resolve this problem,there is a need for comprehensive,in-depth review of fundamental concepts of Foresight being specifically applied in managing disasters Considering the concept of the systematic approach to disaster risk management and key concepts of Foresight will respectively show the importance of Foresight in avoiding ‘systematic failures’ in case natural disasters occur.‘Foresight studies’ are not common in ‘disaster management’ studies,therefore,the information collected and analyzed in this paper is based on theoretical and fundamental concepts of two fields of studies including ‘disaster management’ and ‘Foresight’,as well as available resources of the practical Foresight studies in disaster managing.To improve the insights of the related decision-makers,the common areas,and the key differences between the ‘disaster management’ approach and Foresight are compared.Moreover,the related viewpoints are also discussed after analyzing the basic concepts which can be viewed through Foresight.The results reveal that there are significant conceptual similarities and differences in these two fields of studies.These differences,in some cases,create a simplistic point of view to ‘Foresight’ in planning for disaster prevention.Thus,limited Foresight methods have been used in disaster management so far.To avoid this problem,the conceptual relationships among the Foresight and disaster management are outlined.The position of Foresight in the improvement of disaster management cycle has been identified as well.Disaster management tools are proposed to promote the application of Foresight in disaster management.© 2017 Elsevier Ltd

  • Evaluation of groundwater vulnerability using data mining technique in Hashtgerd plain

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment is an effective informative method to provide basis for determining source of pollution.Vulnerability maps are employed as an important solution in order to handle entrance of pollution into the aquifers.A common way to develop groundwater vulnerability map is DRASTIC index.Meanwhile,application of the method is not easy for any aquifer due to choosing appropriate constant values of weights and ranks.Clustering technique would be an influential method for regionalization of groundwater flow zone to facilitate vulnerability assessment of groundwater aquifers.In this study,a new approach using k-means clustering is applied to make vulnerability maps.Four features of depth to groundwater,hydraulic conductivity,recharge value and vadose zone are considered at the same time as features of clustering.Five regions are recognized out of the Hashtgerd plain.Each zone corresponds to a different level of vulnerability.The results show that clustering provides a more realistic vulnerability map so that,Pearson's correlation coefficients between nitrate concentrations and clustering vulnerability is 72%.

  • Location,allocation and routing of temporary health centers in rural areas in crisis,solved by improved harmony search algorithm

    In this paper,an uncertain integrated model for simultaneously locating temporary health centers in the affected areas,allocating affected areas to these centers,and routing to transport their required good is considered.Health centers can be settled in one of the affected areas or in a place out of them;therefore,the proposed model offers the best relief operation policy when it is possible to supply the goods of affected areas (which are customers of goods) directly or under coverage.Due to that the problem is NP-Hard,to solve the problem in large-scale,a meta-heuristic algorithm based on harmony search algorithm is presented and its performance has been compared with basic harmony search algorithm and neighborhood search algorithm in small and large scale test problems.The results show that the proposed harmony search algorithm has a suitable efficiency.© 2017,the Authors.

  • Task and hazard analysis of metro drivers and improvement Recommendations

    Background and aims: Metro driving is one of the newest jobs in Iran.For scarcity of studies on the tasks and hazards of metro drivers,we performed a task and hazard analysis of metro drivers to recommend control measures.Methods: This qualitative study was conducted in Metro organization in Tehran during 2012-2013.In this mixed method study,data was collected through field observations,document reviews,individual interviews,focus group interviews and focus group discussions.Many models and techniques include Task Analysis,Organizational Accident Model,Energy Model,Human Factor Analysis and Classification,Failure Mode and Effect Analysis,Fault Tree Analysis,Event Tree Analysis,Management Oversight and Risk Tree,Risk Priority Number,and Lower and Upper Control Levels were used to data analysis.Results: Metro driving has many tasks and hazards.Most hazards were under upper control level while Automatic Train Protection (ATP) was active.In contrast,when ATP was inactive,most hazards were over upper control level.Conclusion: Commitment to customer over commitment to safety was root cause of all of systematic failures and hazards in metro driving job and operation.Establishment of permitto-work system can control many of hazards while ATP is inactive.

  • Developing a robust stochastic model for designing a blood supply chain network in a crisis: a possible earthquake in Tehran

    In a natural disaster such as an earthquake,very often due to the extensive number of severe injuries,demands for blood units sharply increase in emergency hospitals.Regarding such a problem,we propose a new robust two-stage multi-period stochastic model for the blood supply network design with the consideration of a possible natural disaster.The demand for blood units from different types and their derivatives including plasma and platelets are uncertain variables.As a novel contribution,the possibility of transfusion of one blood type as well as its derivatives to other types based on the medical requirements is considered in the optimization model.The pertinent network consists of three layers including the donated areas,the collection blood centers,and the transfusion blood center,which is usually a governmental organization.The model is also constructed for considering a likely earthquake in Tehran (the capital of Islamic Republic of Iran) using a professional report prepared in the year 1999 and also updated in a next research work.The scenarios for the demands of blood units and their derivatives are generated based on these reports.The mathematical model is implemented and assessed in a proper way using the simulation method.© 2017 Springer Science+Business Media New York

  • Seismic vulnerability assessment of confined masonry buildings based on ESDOF

    The effects of past earthquakes have demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of confined masonry structures (CMSs) to earthquakes.The results of experimental analysis indicate that damage to these structures depends on lateral displacement applied to the walls.Seismic evaluation lacks an analytical approach because of the complexity of the behavior of this type of structure;an empirical approach is often used for this purpose.Seismic assessment and risk analysis of CMSs,especially in area have a large number of such buildings is difficult and could be riddled with error.The present study used analytical and numerical models to develop a simplified nonlinear displacement-based approach for seismic assessment of a CMS.The methodology is based on the concept of ESDOF and displacement demand and is compared with displacement capacity at the characteristic period of vibration according to performance level.Displacement demand was identified using the nonlinear displacement spectrum for a specified limit state.This approach is based on a macro model and nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis of a 3D prototype structure taking into account uncertainty of the mechanical properties and results in a simple,precise method for seismic assessment of a CMS.To validate the approach,a case study was considered in the form of an analytical fragility curve which was then compared with the precise method.© 2017.Techno-Press,Ltd.All right reserved.

  • Hydrogen production: Perspectives,separation with special emphasis on kinetics of WGS reaction: A state-of-the-art review

    Fossil fuel depletion,global warming,energy security,and climate change spur interest in commercial and environmentally friendly alternative fuels.Palladium-based catalytic membrane technology currently produces ultrapure hydrogen from fossil fuels.Palladium exhibits high permeability,selectivity for hydrogen,and good surface properties.Properties of some palladium alloys enable the industrial production of hydrogen.Reaction rates and conversion depend on several parameters.This document reviews kinetic expressions for the water–gas shift (WGS) reactions and WGS combined with Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (WGS–FTS) reactions at high and low temperatures along with the details of the catalysts and operating conditions.The discussion includes mathematical reactor modeling.© 2016 The Korean Society of Industrial and Engineering Chemistry

  • A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

    The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source.There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic.This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran.The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes.Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process.GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources.The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran.Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible.All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale;duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed.Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account.The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.© 2017,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  • A selected dataset of the Iranian strong motion records

    Iranian strong motion records as well as detailed conditions of their instrument sites and the characteristics of their causative seismic sources are compiled and processed.The dataset consists of 2286 three-component records from 461 Iranian earthquakes with at least two high-quality records having moment magnitude from 3.9 to 7.3.These records are about 20% of the Iranian database and are suitable for seismic hazard analysis and engineering applications.Perhaps for the first time in the literature,the distance to the surface projection of the fault is reported for a great number of records corresponding to earthquakes with M > 6.0.The raw accelerations are processed using the wavelet de-noising method.Having corrected and filtered these raw data,the pseudospectral accelerations are calculated for each of the three components of time series,separately.In addition to the ground motion parameters,a large and comprehensive list of metadata characterizing the recording conditions of each record is also developed.Moreover,careful revision of the characteristics of the earthquakes such as location,magnitude,style of faulting and fault rupture plane geometry,if available,is carried out using the best available information in a scientifically sound manner.Finally,we also focus on special ground motion records including records with peak ground acceleration (PGA) >300 cm/s2 and distances less than 30 km.These are “exceptional” records in the Iranian dataset and include less than 2% of the selected dataset.© 2017,Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  • A probabilistic procedure for scenario-based seismic hazard maps of Greater Tehran

    The seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,the capital of Iran with a population of over 10 million,is necessary in the decision-making process for risk reduction.The main objective of this paper is to present a procedure for obtaining maximum hazard maps in seismically active regions such as Tehran with a history of destructive earthquakes,but where the number of the instrumentally recorded large magnitude events is small.The deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard methods are two quantitative approaches with some practical limitations.To overcome their limitations,the Bayesian statistics are used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitude by combining prior seismological information with the available limited data.The Bayesian approach is used to estimate maximum earthquakes corresponding to different individual ground-motion scenarios at a specific hazard level.The maximum hazard maps are obtained by merging different individual worst-case ground-motion scenarios at a specific hazard level.The hazard analyses under different scenarios are conducted by the finite-fault procedure which uses geological and seismological parameters for each seismic source.The obtained results are in agreement with the observed intensities of historical earthquakes.Moreover,the conventional approach of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is presented to show the difference between the two procedures.The findings provide information about the seismic design or retrofit of structures and infrastructures.© 2017 Elsevier B.V.

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