foresight practices have recently grown in all fields of science.moreover,studies in which the enormous need have existed to design desired futures in natural disaster management have increased as well.in this paper,the authors try to elaborate the relations between ‘disaster management’,‘risk management’,and ‘disaster risk management’ in foresight philosophies and fundamental concepts.in this regard,different information has been gathered and analyzed.these include literature review in disaster management,foresight,and related fields,as well as evidences of foresight and disaster risk management projects.in addition,global statistical data related to natural disasters have been analyzed.reviewing global trends of natural disasters reveal that disaster impacts are dramatically increasing.the uncertainties associated with future disasters have grown too.this will certainly surprise decision-makers in future disasters.furthermore,the key stakeholders,who could apply the foresight methods in managing natural disasters,are national and international policy-makers.they will have faced with a systematic failure in case of inability to follow a reliable long-term planning.to resolve this problem,there is a need for comprehensive,in-depth review of fundamental concepts of foresight being specifically applied in managing disasters considering the concept of the systematic approach to disaster risk management and key concepts of foresight will respectively show the importance of foresight in avoiding ‘systematic failures’ in case natural disasters occur.‘foresight studies’ are not common in ‘disaster management’ studies,therefore,the information collected and analyzed in this paper is based on theoretical and fundamental concepts of two fields of studies including ‘disaster management’ and ‘foresight’,as well as available resources of the practical foresight studies in disaster managing.to improve the insights of the related decision-makers,the common areas,and the key differences between the ‘disaster management’ approach and foresight are compared.moreover,the related viewpoints are also discussed after analyzing the basic concepts which can be viewed through foresight.the results reveal that there are significant conceptual similarities and differences in these two fields of studies.these differences,in some cases,create a simplistic point of view to ‘foresight’ in planning for disaster prevention.thus,limited foresight methods have been used in disaster management so far.to avoid this problem,the conceptual relationships among the foresight and disaster management are outlined.the position of foresight in the improvement of disaster management cycle has been identified as well.disaster management tools are proposed to promote the application of foresight in disaster management.© 2017 elsevier ltd
in this paper,an uncertain integrated model for simultaneously locating temporary health centers in the affected areas,allocating affected areas to these centers,and routing to transport their required good is considered.health centers can be settled in one of the affected areas or in a place out of them;therefore,the proposed model offers the best relief operation policy when it is possible to supply the goods of affected areas (which are customers of goods) directly or under coverage.due to that the problem is np-hard,to solve the problem in large-scale,a meta-heuristic algorithm based on harmony search algorithm is presented and its performance has been compared with basic harmony search algorithm and neighborhood search algorithm in small and large scale test problems.the results show that the proposed harmony search algorithm has a suitable efficiency.© 2017,the authors.
background and aims: metro driving is one of the newest jobs in iran.for scarcity of studies on the tasks and hazards of metro drivers,we performed a task and hazard analysis of metro drivers to recommend control measures.methods: this qualitative study was conducted in metro organization in tehran during 2012-2013.in this mixed method study,data was collected through field observations,document reviews,individual interviews,focus group interviews and focus group discussions.many models and techniques include task analysis,organizational accident model,energy model,human factor analysis and classification,failure mode and effect analysis,fault tree analysis,event tree analysis,management oversight and risk tree,risk priority number,and lower and upper control levels were used to data analysis.results: metro driving has many tasks and hazards.most hazards were under upper control level while automatic train protection (atp) was active.in contrast,when atp was inactive,most hazards were over upper control level.conclusion: commitment to customer over commitment to safety was root cause of all of systematic failures and hazards in metro driving job and operation.establishment of permitto-work system can control many of hazards while atp is inactive.
in a natural disaster such as an earthquake,very often due to the extensive number of severe injuries,demands for blood units sharply increase in emergency hospitals.regarding such a problem,we propose a new robust two-stage multi-period stochastic model for the blood supply network design with the consideration of a possible natural disaster.the demand for blood units from different types and their derivatives including plasma and platelets are uncertain variables.as a novel contribution,the possibility of transfusion of one blood type as well as its derivatives to other types based on the medical requirements is considered in the optimization model.the pertinent network consists of three layers including the donated areas,the collection blood centers,and the transfusion blood center,which is usually a governmental organization.the model is also constructed for considering a likely earthquake in tehran (the capital of islamic republic of iran) using a professional report prepared in the year 1999 and also updated in a next research work.the scenarios for the demands of blood units and their derivatives are generated based on these reports.the mathematical model is implemented and assessed in a proper way using the simulation method.© 2017 springer science+business media new york
studies show that by the course of time,the number of natural disasters such as earthquakes is increasing.therefore,developing a model for locating distribution centers and relief goods distribution systems in disaster times,along with appropriately locating health centers with the ease of access for transferring the casualties and saving their lives,is among the most essential concerns in relief logistics.considering these two subjects,simultaneously,results in an increase in the quality of service in disaster zones.in this study,a multi-objective programming model is developed for locating relief goods distribution centers and health centers along with distributing relief goods and transferring the casualties to health centers,with pre/post-disaster budget constraints for goods and casualties logistics.for a better modelling of the reality,the uncertainties in demand,supply,and cost parameters are included in the model.also,facility failure (e.g.relief distribution centers,health centers,hospitals and supply points failure) due to earthquakes is considered.the proposed model maximizes the response level to medical needs of the casualties,while targeting the justly distribution of relief goods and minimizing the total costs of preparedness and response phases.in order to handle the uncertainties,the robust optimization approach is utilized.the model is solved with ε – constraint method.for the large sized form,the mogasa algorithm is proposed,and the results are compared to those of the nsgaii algorithm.then the validity and efficiency of the proposed algorithm is explored based on the results of both the proposed and exact methods.© 2017 elsevier ltd