foresight practices have recently grown in all fields of science.moreover,studies in which the enormous need have existed to design desired futures in natural disaster management have increased as well.in this paper,the authors try to elaborate the relations between ‘disaster management’,‘risk management’,and ‘disaster risk management’ in foresight philosophies and fundamental concepts.in this regard,different information has been gathered and analyzed.these include literature review in disaster management,foresight,and related fields,as well as evidences of foresight and disaster risk management projects.in addition,global statistical data related to natural disasters have been analyzed.reviewing global trends of natural disasters reveal that disaster impacts are dramatically increasing.the uncertainties associated with future disasters have grown too.this will certainly surprise decision-makers in future disasters.furthermore,the key stakeholders,who could apply the foresight methods in managing natural disasters,are national and international policy-makers.they will have faced with a systematic failure in case of inability to follow a reliable long-term planning.to resolve this problem,there is a need for comprehensive,in-depth review of fundamental concepts of foresight being specifically applied in managing disasters considering the concept of the systematic approach to disaster risk management and key concepts of foresight will respectively show the importance of foresight in avoiding ‘systematic failures’ in case natural disasters occur.‘foresight studies’ are not common in ‘disaster management’ studies,therefore,the information collected and analyzed in this paper is based on theoretical and fundamental concepts of two fields of studies including ‘disaster management’ and ‘foresight’,as well as available resources of the practical foresight studies in disaster managing.to improve the insights of the related decision-makers,the common areas,and the key differences between the ‘disaster management’ approach and foresight are compared.moreover,the related viewpoints are also discussed after analyzing the basic concepts which can be viewed through foresight.the results reveal that there are significant conceptual similarities and differences in these two fields of studies.these differences,in some cases,create a simplistic point of view to ‘foresight’ in planning for disaster prevention.thus,limited foresight methods have been used in disaster management so far.to avoid this problem,the conceptual relationships among the foresight and disaster management are outlined.the position of foresight in the improvement of disaster management cycle has been identified as well.disaster management tools are proposed to promote the application of foresight in disaster management.© 2017 elsevier ltd
background and aims: metro driving is one of the newest jobs in iran.for scarcity of studies on the tasks and hazards of metro drivers,we performed a task and hazard analysis of metro drivers to recommend control measures.methods: this qualitative study was conducted in metro organization in tehran during 2012-2013.in this mixed method study,data was collected through field observations,document reviews,individual interviews,focus group interviews and focus group discussions.many models and techniques include task analysis,organizational accident model,energy model,human factor analysis and classification,failure mode and effect analysis,fault tree analysis,event tree analysis,management oversight and risk tree,risk priority number,and lower and upper control levels were used to data analysis.results: metro driving has many tasks and hazards.most hazards were under upper control level while automatic train protection (atp) was active.in contrast,when atp was inactive,most hazards were over upper control level.conclusion: commitment to customer over commitment to safety was root cause of all of systematic failures and hazards in metro driving job and operation.establishment of permitto-work system can control many of hazards while atp is inactive.
the effects of past earthquakes have demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of confined masonry structures (cmss) to earthquakes.the results of experimental analysis indicate that damage to these structures depends on lateral displacement applied to the walls.seismic evaluation lacks an analytical approach because of the complexity of the behavior of this type of structure;an empirical approach is often used for this purpose.seismic assessment and risk analysis of cmss,especially in area have a large number of such buildings is difficult and could be riddled with error.the present study used analytical and numerical models to develop a simplified nonlinear displacement-based approach for seismic assessment of a cms.the methodology is based on the concept of esdof and displacement demand and is compared with displacement capacity at the characteristic period of vibration according to performance level.displacement demand was identified using the nonlinear displacement spectrum for a specified limit state.this approach is based on a macro model and nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis of a 3d prototype structure taking into account uncertainty of the mechanical properties and results in a simple,precise method for seismic assessment of a cms.to validate the approach,a case study was considered in the form of an analytical fragility curve which was then compared with the precise method.© 2017.techno-press,ltd.all right reserved.
the seismic hazard assessment of tehran,the capital of iran with a population of over 10 million,is necessary in the decision-making process for risk reduction.the main objective of this paper is to present a procedure for obtaining maximum hazard maps in seismically active regions such as tehran with a history of destructive earthquakes,but where the number of the instrumentally recorded large magnitude events is small.the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard methods are two quantitative approaches with some practical limitations.to overcome their limitations,the bayesian statistics are used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitude by combining prior seismological information with the available limited data.the bayesian approach is used to estimate maximum earthquakes corresponding to different individual ground-motion scenarios at a specific hazard level.the maximum hazard maps are obtained by merging different individual worst-case ground-motion scenarios at a specific hazard level.the hazard analyses under different scenarios are conducted by the finite-fault procedure which uses geological and seismological parameters for each seismic source.the obtained results are in agreement with the observed intensities of historical earthquakes.moreover,the conventional approach of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is presented to show the difference between the two procedures.the findings provide information about the seismic design or retrofit of structures and infrastructures.© 2017 elsevier b.v.
background: myosin heavy chain 9 (myh9) gene polymorphisms have been implicated in different types of renal disease,as well as in nephropathy attributed to type 2 diabetes mellitus.objectives: this study sought to analyze the association of myh9 gene polymorphism (rs4821481) with diabetic nephropathy (dn),urine albumin excretion value,and glomerular filtration rate (gfr) in an iranian diabetic population.methods: this case-control study included 201 diabetic patients with and without dn,who were referred to the diabetes and metabolic center,tehran,iran.the allele and genotype frequencies of rs4821481 were determined using arms-polymerase chain reaction (arms-pcr).in both groups,blood levels of fasting glucose,hba1c,urea,creatinine,uric acid,and lipids,as well as urine albumin and creatinine,were measured and gfr was calculated.results: patients who carried the rs4821481 polymorphism had significantly higher urinary excretion of albumin (p < 0.05) and insignificantly lower gfr values (p = 0.08).the frequency of rs4821481 snp was 22.8% in patients without dn versus 28% in the dn group,which was not statistically significant.only 2% and 3% of patients without dn and with dn,respectively,had two copies of the c allele.no significant association was found between the rs4821481 polymorphism and dn (or [95% ci] 1.56 [0.79-3.08],p = 0.19).conclusions: although we found an association between myh9 gene polymorphism and urinary albumin excretion,the results did not show a significant association between myh9 polymorphism (rs4821481) and risk of dn in iranian diabetic patients.© 2016,iranian red crescent medical journal.