foresight practices have recently grown in all fields of science.moreover,studies in which the enormous need have existed to design desired futures in natural disaster management have increased as well.in this paper,the authors try to elaborate the relations between ‘disaster management’,‘risk management’,and ‘disaster risk management’ in foresight philosophies and fundamental concepts.in this regard,different information has been gathered and analyzed.these include literature review in disaster management,foresight,and related fields,as well as evidences of foresight and disaster risk management projects.in addition,global statistical data related to natural disasters have been analyzed.reviewing global trends of natural disasters reveal that disaster impacts are dramatically increasing.the uncertainties associated with future disasters have grown too.this will certainly surprise decision-makers in future disasters.furthermore,the key stakeholders,who could apply the foresight methods in managing natural disasters,are national and international policy-makers.they will have faced with a systematic failure in case of inability to follow a reliable long-term planning.to resolve this problem,there is a need for comprehensive,in-depth review of fundamental concepts of foresight being specifically applied in managing disasters considering the concept of the systematic approach to disaster risk management and key concepts of foresight will respectively show the importance of foresight in avoiding ‘systematic failures’ in case natural disasters occur.‘foresight studies’ are not common in ‘disaster management’ studies,therefore,the information collected and analyzed in this paper is based on theoretical and fundamental concepts of two fields of studies including ‘disaster management’ and ‘foresight’,as well as available resources of the practical foresight studies in disaster managing.to improve the insights of the related decision-makers,the common areas,and the key differences between the ‘disaster management’ approach and foresight are compared.moreover,the related viewpoints are also discussed after analyzing the basic concepts which can be viewed through foresight.the results reveal that there are significant conceptual similarities and differences in these two fields of studies.these differences,in some cases,create a simplistic point of view to ‘foresight’ in planning for disaster prevention.thus,limited foresight methods have been used in disaster management so far.to avoid this problem,the conceptual relationships among the foresight and disaster management are outlined.the position of foresight in the improvement of disaster management cycle has been identified as well.disaster management tools are proposed to promote the application of foresight in disaster management.© 2017 elsevier ltd
careful planning of skid trails as wood extraction routes in forests is an ongoing task and necessary for minimizing the environmental damage.the main objective of this study is to find skid trails to extract marked trees from stand sites to landing sites using a gis-based decision support system (dss) and network analysis techniques,where environmental information is incorporated into the objective.the techniques were applied in a stand where single trees are felled in near-to-nature conditions.this system is called a single tree selection cutting method.parameters considered for mapping the terrain stability include slope,soil and stream network.the analytical hierarchy process was used to estimate the weights of these parameters.routing between marked trees and log landing was done using a gps-tracking survey and then the analysis was done using new route and service area tools in gis.the service area tool shows accessibility of marked trees by skid trails.results showed that on average the length of the route decreased by 6.65 and 19.22% with the use of a new route tool in compartments 29 and 4,respectively.in conclusion,dss techniques increased accessibility of marked trees and decreased the length of the route.
destructions resulted from natural hazards like earthquake,landslide,or flood in the urban roads and lifelines introduce their negative effects including the psychological damage to citizens as well as decreased urban functions that usually last for a long time.thus,a quick and efficient recovery of infrastructures,lifelines,and service-providing facilities along with reducing reconstruction costs and time are essential.this paper proposed an approach that consists of four models for forming an algorithm in order to quantitating and integrating of the criteria that have decisive influence in the recovery of urban roadways after a natural disaster.meanwhile,to aggregate and conclude the data that are collected by means of presented functions and formulations,we applied fuzzy vikor technique as a compromise ranking method.the model outputs a priority list showing the revival of which urban paths stands in higher priority for recovery operation after a natural disaster.results show that not only the model is able to precisely quantize the selected criteria and provide an action plan for post-event recovery prioritization,but also it offers an appropriate order of transportation roads priority for recovery operations.finally,the results from the recovery model application to a roadway system in tehran area are provided.© 2017,springer science+business media dordrecht.
flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters with socio-economic consequences.thus,preparation of the flood prone areas (fpa) map is essential for flood disaster management,and for planning further development activities.the main goal of this study is to investigate new applications of the evidential belief function (ebf),random forest (rf),and boosted regression trees (brt) models for identifying the fpa in the galikesh region,iran.this research was conducted in three main stages such as data preparation,flood susceptibility mapping using ebf,rf,and brt models and validation of constructed models using receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve.at first,a flood inventory map was prepared using documentary sources of iranian water resources department (iwrd) and extensive field surveys.in total,63 flood locations were identified in the study area.of these,47 (75%) floods were randomly selected as training/model building and the remaining 16 (25%) cases were used for the validation purposes.the flood conditioning factors considered in the study area are altitude,slope aspect,slope angle,topographic wetness index,plan curvature,geology,landuse,distance from rivers,drainage density,and soil texture.subsequently,the fpa maps were prepared using ebf,rf,and brt models in a gis environment.finally,the results were validated using roc curve and area under the curve (auc) analysis.from the analysis,it was seen that the ebf (auc = 78.67%) and brt models (auc = 78.22%) performed better than rf model (auc = 73.33%).therefore,the resultant fpa maps can be useful for researchers and planner in flood mitigation strategies.© 2017,springer science+business media dordrecht.
background: strategic planning and objectives at the provincial and local levels should be consistent with the requirements,obligations,and official standards.objectives: in the present study,we sought to assess the health system's informative documents on disaster management used by the decision-makers.methods: this was a qualitative research,which utilized content analysis.seven national documents were selected from 9 national documents on disaster management.valid checklists and data extraction forms were used for data collection.results: based on the united nations disaster preparedness (undp) protocol,preparedness and mitigation strategies were investigated in national documents.we identified 52 strategies in disaster preparedness and 19 in disaster mitigation.themostmentioned strategies were related to organizational structure,resource planning mobilization,and strategies on evaluation,vulnerability assessment,and disaster response mechanisms.conclusions: according to the findings of the present study,more attention should be paid to the mission and vision of the organizations in disaster preparedness.to improve the disaster preparedness measures,more emphasis should be placed on other disaster preparedness strategies such as response mechanisms and information systems.copyright © 2016 trauma monthly.